The potential effects of future climate change on suitable habitat for the Taiwan partridge (Arborophila crudigularis): an ensemble-based forecasting method

Authors: JUNCHENG LEI, JUN WU, QINGWEI GUAN

Abstract: Climate change is considered to be one of the greatest threats to biodiversity in this century, especially for range-restricted island species. This study explored the potential effects of climate change on Arborophila crudigularis, a weak-flying endemic bird species in Taiwan. The potential effects of climate change on climatically suitable habitat for A. crudigularis were analyzed in biomod2 and ArcGIS software. Future climate change could increase the availability of climatically suitable habitat for A. crudigularis while decreasing the mean suitability for both the entire suitable area and the area with known presence records. By 2050 and 2080, climatically suitable habitat is expected to increase by an average of 4.57% and 5.18%, respectively; the mean suitability of the entire climatically suitable habitat is expected to decrease by 4.80% and 6.61%; and the mean suitability of known presence records is expected to decrease by 2.70% and 4.62%, respectively. Future climate change will not be disastrous for A. crudigularis in Taiwan. Future efforts to conserve this species should focus on northwestern Taiwan.

Keywords: Taiwan, species distribution model, biomod2, climate scenario, general circulation model, conservation

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