COVID-19 modeling based on real geographic and population data

Authors: EMİR BAYSAZAN, AHMET NİHAT BERKER, HASAN MANDAL, HAKAN KAYGUSUZ

Abstract: Background/aim: Intercity travel is one of the most important parameters for combating a pandemic. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in different computational studies involving intercity connections. In this study, the effects of intercity connections during an epidemic such as COVID-19 are evaluated using a new network model. Materials and methods: This model considers the actual geographic neighborhood and population density data. This new model is applied to actual Turkish data by means of provincial connections and populations. A Monte Carlo algorithm with a hybrid lattice model is applied to a lattice with 8802 data points. Results: Around Monte Carlo step 70, the number of active cases in Türkiye reaches up to 8.0% of the total population, which is followed by a second wave at around Monte Carlo step 100. The number of active cases vanishes around Monte Carlo step 160. Starting with İstanbul, the epidemic quickly expands between steps 60 and 100. Simulation results fit the actual mortality data in Türkiye. Conclusion: This model is quantitatively very efficient in modeling real-world COVID-19 epidemic data based on populations and geographical intercity connections, by means of estimating the number of deaths, disease spread, and epidemic termination.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, epidemic, geographical model, susceptible-infected-quarantine-recovered model, COVID-19

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