Evaluation of artificial neural network methods to forecast short-term solar power generation: a case study in Eastern Mediterranean Region

Authors: HELİN BOZKURT, RAMAZAN MACİT, ÖZGÜR ÇELİK, AHMET TEKE

Abstract: Solar power forecasting is substantial for the utilization, planning, and designing of solar power plants. Global solar irradiation (GSI) and meteorological variables have a crucial role in solar power generation. The ever-changing meteorological variables and imprecise measurement of GSI raise difficulties for forecasting photovoltaic (PV) output power. In this context, a major motivation appears for the accurate forecast of GSI to perform effective forecasting of the short-term output power of a PV plant. The presented study comprises of four artificial neural network (ANN) methods; recurrent neural network (RNN) method, feedforward backpropagation neural network (FFBPNN) method, support vector regression (SVR) method, and long short-term memory (LSTM) for daily total GSI prediction of Tarsus by using meteorological data. Moreover, this study proposes a model that utilizes the predicted daily GSI for output power forecasting of a grid-connected PV plant. The obtained results are compared with the output power generation data of a 350 kW solar power plant. The results are evaluated with the performance indices as mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE), weighted mean absolute error (WMAE), and normalized mean absolute error (NMAE). FFBPNN method is chosen with the best results of MAPE 7.066%, NMAE 3.629%, NRMSE 4.673%, and WMAE 5.256%.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, long short-term memory, multilayer perceptron, photovoltaic power forecasting,global solar irradiation forecasting

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