Earthquake Hazard of the Aegean Extension Region (West Turkey)

Authors: ORHAN POLAT, ELÇİN GÖK, DOĞUSER YILMAZ

Abstract: West Turkey, one of the most seismically active regions of Turkey, has been analysed to reveal seismic hazard by using fractal behaviour, seismic quiescence z- and Gutenberg-Richter b-parameters. Starting from raw earthquake catalogue, we performed completeness analysis on recorded events, and a final catalogue, could be accepted as homogeneous, was obtained. According to the results obtained from the Frequency-Magnitude Distribution (FMD), seismic activity rates (b- and z-values) and fractal correlation dimension, we detected three anomalous zones throughout the Aegean Extension Region (AER). These are: (1) Çandarlı Bay and Bergama-Zeytindağ Fault Zone, (2) İzmir fault and Orhanlı Fault Zone, and (3) Buldan and surrounding areas. The relatively infrequent occurrence of the great earthquakes in the AER and present hazard parameters obtained by this study suggest that magnitude of a destructive earthquake may reach up to Ms= 6.5. Hence, it is also possible to say that large earthquakes are generally not expected in those related zones because of seismic moment release from small-moderate sized earthquakes.

Keywords: West Turkey, earthquake catalogue, fractal analysis, seismic hazard

Full Text: PDF